Assuming we flip a fair coin 9 times and get 9 heads. What's the probability that the coin will come up heads on the next toss? I'm a li'l confused here. They say a fair coin toss is independent of other toss, and so the probability should be 50/50. But per Bayes theorem, we need to revise the probability and that means there's 9/10 chance of getting heads on the next flip (assuming my calculation is right). But then again, statistics show that of 10 flips, roughly 5 should be heads, and that means, this fair coin is *overdue* for showing tails, and so has a high probability for coming up tails. Clearly, I'm wrong somewhere. What am I missing? Any help will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.