Assuming we flip a fair coin 9 times and get 9 heads. What's the\nprobability that the coin will come up heads on the next toss?\n\nI'm a li'l confused here. They say a fair coin toss is independent of\nother toss, and so the probability should be 50/50. But per Bayes\ntheorem, we need to revise the probability and that means there's 9/10\nchance of getting heads on the next flip (assuming my calculation is\nright). But then again, statistics show that of 10 flips, roughly 5\nshould be heads, and that means, this fair coin is *overdue* for\nshowing tails, and so has a high probability for coming up tails.\n\nClearly, I'm wrong somewhere. What am I missing?\n\nAny help will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.