# Fantasy Football

Discussion in 'Probability and Statistics' started by FF2022, Aug 8, 2022.

1. ### FF2022

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Aug 8, 2022
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I am trying to use a formula to help guild me on who and when to pick players for my Fantasy Football team. Below is what I am using, I am looking for improvements, tips, ideas and comments.

First I enter projected stats from each player for the upcoming season on a spreadsheet. Projected TDs, yards passed, ran and caught. (I use Fantasy Pros website as they have an aggregate projection from 4-6 sources)

2nd, I use a formula to project how many points each player will score. Examples, top QB projected to score 420 points, 12th hightest is 340 points.At RB and WR I use top scoring 250 points to 60th hightest scoring around 130 points.Tight End is highest 200 points and 12th highest is 90 points. There are 12 teams in the league.

3rd I weight the players for age, I just take 5% off the projected scoring if over a certin age. I use 35 years for QB, 31 years for WR & TE, 28 years for RB. (I feel this helps accoumt for injuries, revevery etc.)

Now I need to complie a single list of all plyers, To do this I try and normalize/weight the projected scoring (hope that is the right words). To do this for example, I take the 12th highest scoring QB projected score and subtract that from all the QB projected scoring. So for QB, 420 is the projected highest scoring QB, minus 130 = 290. This is how much more points he should score for the season than the 12th highest QB. At RB/WR I subtract 130 points from each projection and for TE its 90 points. This allows me to see how many more points a player will score during the season than the 12th best. Its not precise, just a rough guess. (This step is my weakest step in doing this, is there a better way to normalize or weight different players at different postions?)

Now I have a list sorted 1 to 200 of the top 200 players and which should help me score the most points each week. The top player is scored, Taylor, gets a 1 and the 200th player gets 200.

But now I also want to weigh where he avereage player is being drafted vs where I want to draft the player. To do this I use the Aveerage Draft Position from the current website we use to draft off of. (CBS Sports) My logic in using the ADP from here is most people in the league will use this list, so I can anticipate when other teams will draft someone. To do this I rank the players ADP 1 to 200, then I average my ranking vs the ADP. For expample, Taylor is my #1 choice, and he is also the ADP #1 choice, so the average of 1 and 1 is 1 and he comes out #1 on my list. But Henry is #2 on my list, but his ADP is currently #5, so his final rank is the average, #3.5. Allen is #9 on my personal ranking, but his ADP is 24, so his average is 16.5.

My logic to doing this is if I have a player ranked to high, this system might let me wait 1 extra round and still get him. The same if I have a player ranked lower than the ADP, this system moves him up the list a little, but still below his current ADP, I probably wont get this player, but should he slip a round he will be near the top of my list. This really helps Rookies.

I dont use this final ranking as anything more than a guide to use during the draft, espevualy lator rounds. I am looking for any comments, tip sor way to inprive my system.

FF2022, Aug 8, 2022