RTA Probability

Discussion in 'Probability and Statistics' started by alan, Jun 16, 2022.

  1. alan


    Jun 16, 2022
    Likes Received:
    Referring to this page, there are 3782 cyclists at fault for failing to look properly, and 7565 non-cyclists. If we assume that there are 8 times as many non-cycling road users as cyclists, does it follow that:

    1. Cyclists are four times more likely to be at fault because they’re producing half as many incidents from 8 times fewer vehicles.
    2. Cyclists are 16 times less likely to be at fault because non-cyclists are still producing twice the incidents despite having 8 times fewer potential targets for careless road users to collide with.
    3. From the product of 1&2 above, cyclists are four times less likely to be at fault overall.
    4. Cyclists are just half as likely to be at fault, because those who haven’t crashed are not relevant.
    5. None of the above.

    alan, Jun 16, 2022
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