# which is more likely?(uncertain)

Discussion in 'Probability' started by matthewwinston, Sep 10, 2003.

1. ### matthewwinstonGuest

Someone predicts using bible codes:
1.An asteroid impacts, devestating the earth.
2.Planet X flys by and scorches the earth.
Then it happens. (one or the other first).

any equations welcome.

I am not well versed in the laws of uncertainty but I bet Stephen
Hawking would have fun with this.

matthewwinston, Sep 10, 2003

2. ### Stan BrownGuest

No, he'd probably heave a weary sigh. Those so-called "bible codes"
are bunk. If you have sufficiently long text, you can find _any_
message you like in it if you try enough patterns. First letter of
every chapter doesn't work? Try second letter of every chapter. Try
first letter of chapter 1, third letter of chapter 2, fifth letter
of chapter 3, and so on.

The point is, if you try enough combinations (and computers are
good at that), you will eventually find a string of English words
(or words in whatever language you wish, of course). That doesn't
tell you a message was planted there; it is simply the result of
_selecting_ the rule that gives you "message" and then ignoring all
the rules that didn't.

Somebody did this with something even as short as the U.S.
Constitution: by patiently trying various rules they eventually came
up with some sort of message, or the names of the first N
presidents, or something like that. I don't remember the details,
but all praise to Google; here it is: the coded message in the U.S.
Constitution prophesied the Clinton-Lewinsky mess. Source:

http://www.math.temple.edu/~paulos/bibcodes.html

Your bible is a LOT longer, so there's a lot more scope for
sequences of letters that you can misinterpret as messages.

In so far as your question has any semantic content, it is "Which is
more likely, for an asteroid to crash into the earth or a planet to
come near enough to cause major damage?"

Historically, major asteroids have hit the earth about every 60
million years or so, and therefore a first approximation to the
asteroid probability is 1/60,000,000 in any given year. I have no
idea of the probability of your other event, but I rather suspect
it's considerably lower.

--
Stan Brown, Oak Road Systems, Cortland County, New York, USA
Address munging may or may not reduce the spam you get; it surely
reduces the number of useful answers you get.
http://www.cs.tut.fi/~jkorpela/usenet/laws.html

Stan Brown, Sep 11, 2003

3. ### matthewwinstonGuest

and calculations have been made on codes, including moby dick.
pasting for reference only:
(If, for example, in any given position the probability of a b is .014,
the probability of an i is .065, and the probability of an l is .011,
then the probability that the four letters in "Bill" appear in any four
given positions is simply .014 x . 065 x .011 x .011.) Thus the product
of ten small numbers - let's call it P - is a truly infinitesimal
probability.
right but there is a finite number in there whatever it might be.
say using a skip code 1-99,999 or whatever the computer can do

there can only be so many skip codes for PlanetX, considering it is
seven letters and the bible has a finite word/letter count.

how many letters are in the KJV bible.
thats the one I will use

say the computer kicks out two or three answers planet X
uhm, ELS code is what its called, i'll have to find the formula.

http://www.biblecode.com/theomatics/els.html

then there is a formula for "when" it will happen. some infinite
possibility formula

then the possibility of an asteroid crashing, ive seen people
calculating this on several websites but I dont think I could.
right which would be more probable to happen "first".
anyway, i'm not trying to prove ELS codes are real or not, I'm trying to
find out which would be more likely to happen first.

I'll use the 1/60M for the asteroid.

ive read that planet X is supposed to come around something like every
7000 years, still no sign of it.

so if it did exist or is there some astronomic calculation to find the
possibility of a bright red firey planet to come swinging by earth? say
something like a brown dwarf maybe?

i'll crosspost to alt astronomy

matthewwinston, Sep 11, 2003
4. ### Double-AGuest

What ever happened to Planet X? I thought 'Nancy" said it was
supposed to be here in May or June of this year. Where is it?

Double-A

Double-A, Sep 12, 2003
5. ### Paul R. MaysGuest

Oh wow .. You missed it? Its was awesome.... the way NASA
got the old bald astronaut to fly in and try to alter its course and
end up splitting it into two pieces...

Oh wait a minute.. that was a mov.......

Never Mind.....

Paul R. Mays, Sep 12, 2003
6. ### NigelGuest

The language the bible was originally written in was very crude, with a
of the meanings of the symbols, so one symbol might mean asteroid,
concorde, nuclear power station, osama bin laden or mother-in-law
depending on context.

A frequency diagram of the various sized particles in the universe would
be a help - are there more large-asteroid-sized bodies than planets? If
so (which is likely to be the case currently and for quite a long time
in the future) then the asteroid impact is more likely.

Nigel

Nigel, Sep 12, 2003
7. ### matthewwinstonGuest

It didnt happen, and it was predicted by a man claiming to be Elijah,
one of the two witnesses, to come on aug 27, he says it was an error,
but it is supposed to happen anyway.

matthewwinston, Sep 12, 2003
8. ### Double-AGuest

Well I think Elijah and Nancy better synchronize their clocks and come
up with a revised forecast!

Double-A

Double-A, Sep 13, 2003
9. ### Stan BrownGuest

When would it ever not be true? Aren't planets expected to (a)
gradually move closer to their stars until tidal strains break them
up or (b) get engulfed and vaporized as their stars expand to red
giants?

I could be wrong, and if so would welcome a correction.

--
Stan Brown, Oak Road Systems, Cortland County, New York, USA
Address munging may or may not reduce the spam you get; it surely
reduces the number of useful answers you get.
http://www.cs.tut.fi/~jkorpela/usenet/laws.html

Stan Brown, Sep 13, 2003
10. ### matthewwinstonGuest

or find better bible decoders, I suspect he got a cluster of "planetx"
and "aug27", and assumed that was the date of destruction, anyway, still
working on my cosmic clash equations, it seems more important than
playing with bible codes

matthewwinston, Sep 13, 2003
11. ### Mark PalenikGuest

One of my favorite "end of the world" predictions was by a woman, who
predicted that on may 5th 1999, the world would end, because the planets
would align, throwing the earth off it's axis, causing immediate climate
changes and mass extinctions.

Mark Palenik, Sep 14, 2003
12. ### DennisGuest

One of my favorite "end of the world" predictions was by a woman

Was she right?

Dennis

Dennis, Sep 14, 2003
13. ### matthewwinstonGuest

may5, planet alignment
only about the planets aligning, the earth is always titling its axis

matthewwinston, Sep 14, 2003