which is more likely?(uncertain)

Discussion in 'Probability' started by matthewwinston, Sep 10, 2003.

  1. Someone predicts using bible codes:
    1.An asteroid impacts, devestating the earth.
    2.Planet X flys by and scorches the earth.
    Then it happens. (one or the other first).

    any equations welcome.

    I am not well versed in the laws of uncertainty but I bet Stephen
    Hawking would have fun with this.
     
    matthewwinston, Sep 10, 2003
    #1
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  2. matthewwinston

    Stan Brown Guest

    No, he'd probably heave a weary sigh. Those so-called "bible codes"
    are bunk. If you have sufficiently long text, you can find _any_
    message you like in it if you try enough patterns. First letter of
    every chapter doesn't work? Try second letter of every chapter. Try
    first letter of chapter 1, third letter of chapter 2, fifth letter
    of chapter 3, and so on.

    The point is, if you try enough combinations (and computers are
    good at that), you will eventually find a string of English words
    (or words in whatever language you wish, of course). That doesn't
    tell you a message was planted there; it is simply the result of
    _selecting_ the rule that gives you "message" and then ignoring all
    the rules that didn't.

    Somebody did this with something even as short as the U.S.
    Constitution: by patiently trying various rules they eventually came
    up with some sort of message, or the names of the first N
    presidents, or something like that. I don't remember the details,
    but all praise to Google; here it is: the coded message in the U.S.
    Constitution prophesied the Clinton-Lewinsky mess. Source:

    http://www.math.temple.edu/~paulos/bibcodes.html

    Your bible is a LOT longer, so there's a lot more scope for
    sequences of letters that you can misinterpret as messages.

    In so far as your question has any semantic content, it is "Which is
    more likely, for an asteroid to crash into the earth or a planet to
    come near enough to cause major damage?"

    Historically, major asteroids have hit the earth about every 60
    million years or so, and therefore a first approximation to the
    asteroid probability is 1/60,000,000 in any given year. I have no
    idea of the probability of your other event, but I rather suspect
    it's considerably lower.

    --
    Stan Brown, Oak Road Systems, Cortland County, New York, USA
    http://OakRoadSystems.com
    Address munging may or may not reduce the spam you get; it surely
    reduces the number of useful answers you get.
    http://www.cs.tut.fi/~jkorpela/usenet/laws.html
     
    Stan Brown, Sep 11, 2003
    #2
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  3. and calculations have been made on codes, including moby dick.
    I've read all the debunks already.
    thanks for the link
    pasting for reference only:
    (If, for example, in any given position the probability of a b is .014,
    the probability of an i is .065, and the probability of an l is .011,
    then the probability that the four letters in "Bill" appear in any four
    given positions is simply .014 x . 065 x .011 x .011.) Thus the product
    of ten small numbers - let's call it P - is a truly infinitesimal
    probability.
    right but there is a finite number in there whatever it might be.
    say using a skip code 1-99,999 or whatever the computer can do

    there can only be so many skip codes for PlanetX, considering it is
    seven letters and the bible has a finite word/letter count.

    theres a task !
    how many letters are in the KJV bible.
    thats the one I will use

    say the computer kicks out two or three answers planet X
    uhm, ELS code is what its called, i'll have to find the formula.

    http://www.biblecode.com/theomatics/els.html

    then there is a formula for "when" it will happen. some infinite
    possibility formula

    then the possibility of an asteroid crashing, ive seen people
    calculating this on several websites but I dont think I could.
    right which would be more probable to happen "first".
    anyway, i'm not trying to prove ELS codes are real or not, I'm trying to
    find out which would be more likely to happen first.

    I'll use the 1/60M for the asteroid.

    ive read that planet X is supposed to come around something like every
    7000 years, still no sign of it.


    so if it did exist or is there some astronomic calculation to find the
    possibility of a bright red firey planet to come swinging by earth? say
    something like a brown dwarf maybe?

    i'll crosspost to alt astronomy
     
    matthewwinston, Sep 11, 2003
    #3
  4. matthewwinston

    Double-A Guest



    What ever happened to Planet X? I thought 'Nancy" said it was
    supposed to be here in May or June of this year. Where is it?

    Double-A
     
    Double-A, Sep 12, 2003
    #4
  5. matthewwinston

    Paul R. Mays Guest

    Oh wow .. You missed it? Its was awesome.... the way NASA
    got the old bald astronaut to fly in and try to alter its course and
    end up splitting it into two pieces...

    Oh wait a minute.. that was a mov.......

    Never Mind.....
     
    Paul R. Mays, Sep 12, 2003
    #5
  6. matthewwinston

    Nigel Guest

    The language the bible was originally written in was very crude, with a
    single word represented by a single symbol. There was much overloading
    of the meanings of the symbols, so one symbol might mean asteroid,
    concorde, nuclear power station, osama bin laden or mother-in-law
    depending on context.

    A frequency diagram of the various sized particles in the universe would
    be a help - are there more large-asteroid-sized bodies than planets? If
    so (which is likely to be the case currently and for quite a long time
    in the future) then the asteroid impact is more likely.

    Nigel
     
    Nigel, Sep 12, 2003
    #6
  7. It didnt happen, and it was predicted by a man claiming to be Elijah,
    one of the two witnesses, to come on aug 27, he says it was an error,
    but it is supposed to happen anyway.
     
    matthewwinston, Sep 12, 2003
    #7
  8. matthewwinston

    Double-A Guest


    Well I think Elijah and Nancy better synchronize their clocks and come
    up with a revised forecast!

    Double-A
     
    Double-A, Sep 13, 2003
    #8
  9. matthewwinston

    Stan Brown Guest

    When would it ever not be true? Aren't planets expected to (a)
    gradually move closer to their stars until tidal strains break them
    up or (b) get engulfed and vaporized as their stars expand to red
    giants?

    I could be wrong, and if so would welcome a correction.

    --
    Stan Brown, Oak Road Systems, Cortland County, New York, USA
    http://OakRoadSystems.com
    Address munging may or may not reduce the spam you get; it surely
    reduces the number of useful answers you get.
    http://www.cs.tut.fi/~jkorpela/usenet/laws.html
     
    Stan Brown, Sep 13, 2003
    #9
  10. or find better bible decoders, I suspect he got a cluster of "planetx"
    and "aug27", and assumed that was the date of destruction, anyway, still
    working on my cosmic clash equations, it seems more important than
    playing with bible codes
     
    matthewwinston, Sep 13, 2003
    #10
  11. matthewwinston

    Mark Palenik Guest

    One of my favorite "end of the world" predictions was by a woman, who
    predicted that on may 5th 1999, the world would end, because the planets
    would align, throwing the earth off it's axis, causing immediate climate
    changes and mass extinctions.
     
    Mark Palenik, Sep 14, 2003
    #11
  12. matthewwinston

    Dennis Guest

    One of my favorite "end of the world" predictions was by a woman

    Was she right?

    Dennis
     
    Dennis, Sep 14, 2003
    #12
  13. may5, planet alignment
    only about the planets aligning, the earth is always titling its axis
     
    matthewwinston, Sep 14, 2003
    #13
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