Trying to Calc. 5 INDEPENDENT Events ALL happening...getting diff. results from diff. sources

Discussion in 'Probability and Statistics' started by jman995x, Jul 2, 2024.

  1. jman995x

    jman995x

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2024
    Messages:
    2
    Likes Received:
    1
    I'm trying to figure out the probability of 5 INDEPENDENT / UNRELATED Events ALL happening in the same human being.
    For instance, and I'm just using random things for the sake of explaining the set up...what are the chances that a Guy is....
    over 7' tall...
    has the recessive Redhead Gene...
    has polydactyly....
    has a birthmark....
    AND has size 16 feet?

    So, what are the odds of ALL of those things occurring in ONE human male?

    Now, those are NOT representative of the stats below, I'm just using those to give you the gist of the calculation I'm trying to figure out.

    So, while I have probabilities of each individual event I'm interested in, when I multiply them out, my Excel calc differs from other online calculations, so I'm a little confused as what the correct answer is, and how to read the results.

    Here are the probabilities of each INDEPENDENT Event:
    A = 1%
    B = 10%
    C = 0.5%
    D = 0.38%
    E = 0.20%

    Now, when I plug that into Excel, just simply multiplying them out, I get a result of 3.8 x 10^(-11).....or 0.000000000038

    If this is correct? (ie: do you get the same result?).

    If so, what how would you read out the results, verbally in Ratio format?

    In other words, "The odds, or probability, of ALL of these individual events occurring in the same man are 1 in "X" men."

    I keep getting (from different sources), 380M, to 3.8B, to 3.8T...so, am a little confused as to why I'm getting different results via different sources (since it is just simple multiplication), and how to properly read the probability with so many spaces to the right of the decimal.
     
    jman995x, Jul 2, 2024
    #1
  2. jman995x

    conway

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2023
    Messages:
    95
    Likes Received:
    4
    This is not the answer you want, or the "right" answer. Yet it is an answer.....Please forgive me.

    If the probability of any given "event" is NOT equal to zero. Then there is a 100% chance that the given person will exist, some time, somewhere. The "answer" you want, is relative to the person existing "now", or relative to a "current" time frame.

    "A monkey typing hamlet"

    :)
     
    conway, Jul 2, 2024
    #2
  3. jman995x

    jman995x

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2024
    Messages:
    2
    Likes Received:
    1
    I totally understand that at some point this person either already exists, or will exist in the future.

    Having said that, I was just trying to calculate, given the percentages above, how rare such a person would be.
     
    jman995x, Jul 4, 2024
    #3
    conway likes this.
  4. jman995x

    conway

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2023
    Messages:
    95
    Likes Received:
    4
    Well said. I am sorry that I am not a mathematician, and can not help you. This site is void of such plp. Partly because of philosophers like me. If these two kinds could learn to get along we would be better off as a species. Good luck in your quest. Ask the same question on any other math website and you are sure to find the answer you want.
     
    conway, Jul 5, 2024
    #4
  5. jman995x

    conway

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2023
    Messages:
    95
    Likes Received:
    4
    Also......again forgive me. Yet from the right perspective.....nothing and no one is rare!
     
    conway, Jul 5, 2024
    #5
  6. jman995x

    Phrzby Phil

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2022
    Messages:
    31
    Likes Received:
    13
    Your calculation is correct: one chance in 38 trillion.
    This is of course assuming that each of these characteristics is independent of the others.
    One might think, e.g., that height and shoe size are not independent of each other.
     
    Phrzby Phil, Jul 5, 2024
    #6
  7. jman995x

    conway

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2023
    Messages:
    95
    Likes Received:
    4
    Phil....
    The op specifically states that "their" calculations are varying. They specifically ask why. Yet u do not address this. Please do better!
     
    conway, Jul 5, 2024
    #7
  8. jman995x

    Phrzby Phil

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2022
    Messages:
    31
    Likes Received:
    13
    I do not need to be told to "do better," but you need to mind your manners.

    I have no idea why some other person or system calculated differently. How would I or anyone?
     
    Phrzby Phil, Jul 5, 2024
    #8
  9. jman995x

    conway

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2023
    Messages:
    95
    Likes Received:
    4

    By asking questions. By reading the "things" that "they" said they are doing. By expanding....as I have told you before.

    If I ask a math teacher why I am getting 5 different answers, they say, "Yeah 38 is the right answer." , Then say nothing else. Then they are a math teacher who is not minding THEIR manners, or doing their job.

    I sincerely hope your day is blessed Phil.
     
    conway, Jul 5, 2024
    #9
  10. jman995x

    Phrzby Phil

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2022
    Messages:
    31
    Likes Received:
    13
    What does "different sources" mean? To me, it means not calculations by the poster, but by others. Their methods were not included in the post.
     
    Phrzby Phil, Jul 5, 2024
    #10
  11. jman995x

    conway

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2023
    Messages:
    95
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ask them not me. :) That's what I meant by asking questions. Well done. Now just direct them appropriately.

    Unless.....you only responded to this post for ulterior motives? I suspect that this is so.
     
    conway, Jul 5, 2024
    #11
  12. jman995x

    conway

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2023
    Messages:
    95
    Likes Received:
    4
    Yeah...that's what I thought Phil. You had no desire to help the op did you? You only wanted to stroke your ego. Are you beginning to see why the academic world is so detested by laymen? You are all arrogant and narcissistic beyond beleif!

    Consider the truths told to you by your peer Eric Weinstien on this matter. Reread the posts between Logic and I.

    Reconsider all thoese "likes" you gave to someone being so obviously childish and hatefull.

    This is only if you want to grow of course.

    You are a human being worthy of love and kindness!
     
    conway, Jul 6, 2024
    #12
Ask a Question

Want to reply to this thread or ask your own question?

You'll need to choose a username for the site, which only take a couple of moments (here). After that, you can post your question and our members will help you out.
Similar Threads
There are no similar threads yet.
Loading...