"Probability of rain" forecast meaning

Discussion in 'Probability and Statistics' started by Harry6, Aug 6, 2021.

  1. Harry6

    Harry6

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    Please help me understand the "precipitation probability" commonly listed hour-by-hour in weather forecasts.

    For example, the hour by hour forecast for Manhattan NY today includes probabilities of precipitation:

    1pm 2%
    2pm 2%
    3pm 2%
    4pm 2%
    5pm 2%

    (additional probabilities for other hours are also listed)

    For the whole day, however, the forecast precipitation is only 3%.

    How does this makes sense?
    What is the probability of precipitation for a one hour period?
    What is the probability of precipitation for a three hour period?


    Forecast source:
    https://www.wunderground.com/hourly/us/ny/manhattan/40.75,-74.00
     
    Harry6, Aug 6, 2021
    #1
  2. Harry6

    MathLover1

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    MathLover1, Aug 11, 2021
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  3. Harry6

    Country Boy

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    When a weather forecast says "there is a x% chance of rain", what it means is "out of all of the times in the past when weather conditions were like today, it rained x% of them."
     
    Country Boy, Jan 8, 2022
    #3
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