Please help me understand the "precipitation probability" commonly listed hour-by-hour in weather forecasts.
For example, the hour by hour forecast for Manhattan NY today includes probabilities of precipitation:
1pm 2%
2pm 2%
3pm 2%
4pm 2%
5pm 2%
(additional probabilities for other hours are also listed)
For the whole day, however, the forecast precipitation is only 3%.
How does this makes sense?
What is the probability of precipitation for a one hour period?
What is the probability of precipitation for a three hour period?
Forecast source:
https://www.wunderground.com/hourly/us/ny/manhattan/40.75,-74.00
For example, the hour by hour forecast for Manhattan NY today includes probabilities of precipitation:
1pm 2%
2pm 2%
3pm 2%
4pm 2%
5pm 2%
(additional probabilities for other hours are also listed)
For the whole day, however, the forecast precipitation is only 3%.
How does this makes sense?
What is the probability of precipitation for a one hour period?
What is the probability of precipitation for a three hour period?
Forecast source:
https://www.wunderground.com/hourly/us/ny/manhattan/40.75,-74.00