# Probability of Rapture of the Church

Discussion in 'Probability and Statistics' started by nycmathguy, Sep 24, 2021.

1. ### nycmathguy

Joined:
Jun 27, 2021
Messages:
5,386
420
The rapture of the church is an imminent event. What is the probability that the rapture of the church could happen today?

Note: This question is my own creation.

nycmathguy, Sep 24, 2021

2. ### MathLover1

Joined:
Jun 27, 2021
Messages:
2,989
2,883
0%

MathLover1, Sep 24, 2021
nycmathguy likes this.

3. ### nycmathguy

Joined:
Jun 27, 2021
Messages:
5,386
420
Shouldn't the answer be WE DON'T KNOW FOR SURE?

nycmathguy, Sep 24, 2021
4. ### MathLover1

Joined:
Jun 27, 2021
Messages:
2,989
2,883
what ever you prefer

MathLover1, Sep 24, 2021
nycmathguy likes this.
5. ### nycmathguy

Joined:
Jun 27, 2021
Messages:
5,386
420
It's an event promised in Scripture. Just wanted to use it as a probability question.

nycmathguy, Sep 24, 2021
6. ### Jonathan

Joined:
Oct 3, 2021
Messages:
9
3
Imagine a flip of a coin: There is before we know the outcome and after we know the outcome.
Before we know the outcome, we call it 50% probability to get heads.
After we know the outcome, we call it 50% of the outcomes were heads.

Maybe it could be for each day after the prediction, did it happen that day?

Jonathan, Oct 11, 2021
nycmathguy likes this.
7. ### nycmathguy

Joined:
Jun 27, 2021
Messages:
5,386
420
The rapture of the church is an imminent event promised in Scripture. I say the probability of the rapture of the church is closer to 1 than 0 for all probabilities are between 1 and 0.

nycmathguy, Oct 11, 2021
8. ### Jonathan

Joined:
Oct 3, 2021
Messages:
9
3
That's a hypothesis, and so I'd restate it as:

H1: Probability of rapture > 50%
H0: Probability of rapture <= 50%

But how would we test or measure?

Jonathan, Oct 11, 2021
nycmathguy likes this.
9. ### nycmathguy

Joined:
Jun 27, 2021
Messages:
5,386
420
Moving on from this thread. Given the times in which we live, I'd say the rapture is closer today than it was when the apostle Paul wrote about it. It is an imminent event promised in Scripture. Imminent means that it could happen at any time. In fact, the apostle Paul expected the event to take place in his lifetime. I would say the probability of the rapture of the church happening in our lifetime is about 75%.

nycmathguy, Oct 11, 2021
10. ### Jonathan

Joined:
Oct 3, 2021
Messages:
9
3
That's not a measurement, or an estimate based on a measurement.

That's a hypothesis, which always comes with an alternate null hypothesis.
And if it isn't measurable against observation of the real world one way or another...

Example: Mermaids are real, because it isn't possible to prove they don't exist.
H1: Mermaids are real
H0: Mermaids are not real

Last edited: Oct 16, 2021
Jonathan, Oct 16, 2021
11. ### nycmathguy

Joined:
Jun 27, 2021
Messages:
5,386
420
This thread is more an invitation to learn more about the rapture of the church than mathematical in nature. The rapture of the church event is a date known only to God. Several rapture events of individuals throughout Scripture have already taken place.

The only difference between the rapture of several individuals one person at a time and the coming rapture is the fact that the next event on God's prophetic calendar aka the rapture of the church involves more people, in fact, millions more around the globe will vanish into thin air.

Let P(m) = probability for you and I to turn into a mermaid in the future.

P(m) = 0

This will not happen. . .ever!

However, you can trust the Bible and the promises made by almighty God. The rapture will take place. Christ will return for His church (believers worldwide dead or alive). You can that to the bank!

P(rapture of the church) = 100% certainty. All in God's own time.

nycmathguy, Oct 16, 2021
12. ### Jonathan

Joined:
Oct 3, 2021
Messages:
9
3
Then why post it on a math forum? Math is for measuring things, and the posts in this thread thus far have offered no connection to the observable universe.

The additional construct of people turning into mermaids is a possible answer to a further question of how they came to be, but doesn't directly prove/disprove the existence of mermaids. It could also be they evolved from some sea creature in some location we haven't scouted recently.

I claim (knowing I'm likely wrong) that mermaids are real because it's not possible to prove the null hypothesis, that they are not real. It's mostly to show a weakness in the standard scientific method of prove/disprove the null hypothesis. The strongest argument that can be made against their existence is that no one has seen a mermaid yet. The strongest argument for their existence would be to present a mermaid.

The point is that's the entirety of the trustworthiness of an unprovable hypothesis, a declarative assertion. If you wish to take as an axiom that God created the universe, feel free to do so. But I could just as easily claim that God is our time travelling descendants, who have gone back in time and created the universe that resulted in their existence -- the grandfather paradox.

Last edited: Oct 19, 2021
Jonathan, Oct 19, 2021